Here’s some perspective concerning Elway’s poll on I-1185

The September, 2012 poll by Washington pollster Stuart Elway shows I-1185 at 51% yes, 32% no.  The press immediately hyper-ventilated as they always do whenever an Elway poll is released, as if his numbers are printed on stone tablets.  But without perspective, these numbers are meaningless.

       Let’s consider Elway’s September, 2010 poll on I-1053:  it showed support at 48% yes, 27% no.  The press also hyper-ventilated back then, breathlessly reporting that support had plummeted from Elway’s August poll that pegged it at 65% yes, 25% no.  Nonetheless, 60 days later, despite opponents spending $1.6 million, voters overwhelmingly approved I-1053 with a 64% yes vote.

       In other words, I-1185 is three points higher than I-1053 was two years ago at the same time — and I-1053 got 64% of the vote. 

       The truth is that Elway’s polls are intended to serve as a fundraising tool for opponents.  It’s what Elway’s clients want to hear:  “look, it’s beatable if we spend a bunch of money.”  It happens every year and it’s become stale and predictable. 

      But like Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football, the press falls for it every time. 

      But we don’t have to.  We’re gonna be thrilled if I-1185 gets 50.1% of the vote because a win is a win.  But none of us should get worked up about what the pollsters are telling us.  They don’t exist to measure public opinion; they’re there to try and change it.